What your open quotes are worth

The pipeline board’s Quoted column adds up what is out for a decision. What that total cannot tell you is what it is worth, because a quote is worth its value times the chance it closes.

The product has the history to work that out: every proposal you ever sent was accepted, declined or expired, on a date.

Read the three figures

Above the columns on the pipeline board:

• Open quotes — the Quoted column’s total and how many.
• Win rate — of the quotes decided in the last twelve months, the share accepted, with the count that produced it: 11 of 29.
• Expected — the open total at that rate.

Look at the count, not just the rate

The win rate always shows the count behind it, and that is deliberate.

A 67% win rate from 2 of 3 and a 67% win rate from 40 of 60 are the same percentage and completely different facts. Showing the rate alone would invite you to plan a quarter around three quotes.

Understand what it does and does not measure

• Decided quotes only. A quote still out has not told you anything yet, so it is not in the rate — it is in the thing the rate is being applied to.
• Expired counts as not won. A quote nobody answered is a quote you did not win, however it feels.
• Twelve months. Long enough to be stable, recent enough to reflect what you charge now.

Treat Expected as a planning figure

Expected is the open total at your historical rate. It is useful for deciding whether the pipe is full enough, and it is not a forecast of any individual quote.

A single large quote can be most of the total, and it will either land or not — no rate makes half of it arrive.